The Rural Patriot

October 30, 2006

Newest Poll Results for NY-29

Filed under: 2006 Elections,Eric Massa,New York State,Polls,Randy Kuhl — theruralpatriot @ 10:05 pm

The new, independent Majority Watch Poll results are out. 1004 Interviews were taken from 10/24 – 10/26/06; MoE is +/- 3.09%.

Results are 53% Massa / 42% Kuhl. Last poll results were 52% Massa / 40% Kuhl.

What suprised me was the change in the Southern Tier area of the District. Last poll results had Rep. Kuhl up +1; this poll has Mr. Massa up +2 for the area. However, Massa did drop 6 points in the northern area of the district; +20 now vs +26 from the last poll.

Breakdown:

Kuhl’s 42% = 33% Strong; 9 Weak ** Last poll – 32%/8%
Massa’s 53% = 43% Strong; 11 Weak (not a typo) ** Last Poll – 41%/11%
Undecided = 5%; ** Last Poll – 9%

Partisan Identity: 42% Republican; 28% Independent; 30% Democratic
Bush Approval – 31% Approve; 7 Undecided; 61% Disapprove

Another item of interest was the category of Certainty; 80% certain; 20% May Vote for Opponent.

Total Republicans polled – 69% Kuhl; 28% Massa
Total Democrats polled – 12% Kuhl; 84% Massa
Total Independents polled – 34% Kuhl; 57% Massa

Majority Watch – A project of RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics

It looks like the numbers vary little from the last poll results.

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11 Comments »

  1. Man I just cannot buy this. No way Massa would run so strong over in the eastern part of the district. On the other hand, if it happens it is amazing. Majority Watch is sort of an agenda-driven liberal group, isn’t it?

    Comment by olean gal — October 30, 2006 @ 10:25 pm | Reply

  2. No, olean gal; Majority Watch is not an agenda-driven liberal group. This is an independent poll by non-partisan entities. You can check out RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics if you wish.

    Comment by theruralpatriot — October 30, 2006 @ 10:42 pm | Reply

  3. Why haven’t you banned olean gal yet? She’s an obvious troll.

    Comment by TomT — October 30, 2006 @ 11:07 pm | Reply

  4. I don’t think she is a troll, but I do think she has a split personality. Never know if she will turn up as olean gal or penn yan pepper. Almost like she might vote in both places.

    Comment by LV Veteran — October 31, 2006 @ 12:59 am | Reply

  5. Oh, RT Strategies is headed up by two partners, one Republican and one Democrat. Both with great credentials.

    Comment by LV Veteran — October 31, 2006 @ 1:24 am | Reply

  6. She’s a troll. You should see her comments (now deleted) over at our site.

    Comment by TomT — October 31, 2006 @ 9:12 am | Reply

  7. As long as olean gal isn’t offensive, rude and/or demeaning in her comments, I won’t ban her. People that have opposing views or differences of opinion are welcomed here as long as the conversation doesn’t become a mud-slinging event. (I have deleted these types of comments in the past, and I will continue to do this when the situation warrants.)

    We have the opportunity here to educate and enlighten with facts all that read and/or participate in this site. I believe that sometimes even people on opposite sides of the fence can benefit from a civilized conversation. As long as it stays “civil”, it’s OK with me.

    Comment by theruralpatriot — October 31, 2006 @ 12:11 pm | Reply

  8. Olean gal:

    Maybe a dem running strong out on the eastern edge of the district may seem odd, but considering two things, it makes sense. First, Tompkins county is growing and dem leaning voters are moving into Hector, Catherine, Montour Falls and Walmart Glen. At one point, Odessa was awash in Massa signs and the only Kuhl sign was found–lookin’ kinda sketchy–on public space near a truck brake-check/pull-over.

    Second, the old-timers aren’t showing their old brand loyalty to the GOP because of the character/integrity/trust deficit the GOP suffers from everywhere. Add to this scenario at home an incumbent who mirrors the cynical, arrogant, and sleazy after-taste of the past 5 years. Seems that among some of the older folk, the unspoken story of the boozin’, philandering, psycho-shotgun background of Randy’s character matters (and is now spoken of… ) in light of ongoing congressional corruption, a failed war, lies… double-speak… medicare…

    and… a solid (still) Kuhl-voting republican admitted to me that the TV ads were tasteless, misleading, AND show how little influnce Kuhl has in the GOP if he can’t stop that type of ad. He seemed to argue that Kuhl is harmless so he is OK. I don’t know how harmless Kuhl is if you are a veteran, facing bankruptcy, or working at minimum wagebut… THEN I pointed out the two Soc Sec mailings from Kuhl’s HQs… zing!

    -swamp-

    Comment by swamp — October 31, 2006 @ 5:29 pm | Reply

  9. I can also tell you that a lot of us have been working our tails off phone banking and going door-to-door in the Southern Tier. And I can also tell you that we only talk about Massa – at least I do – I don’t start off or get into cutting down Kuhl. Information is the essential thing in changing the tide throughout this whole country.

    Comment by Kathy — October 31, 2006 @ 9:34 pm | Reply

  10. Thanks, everyone. What is a troll, anyway? I heard, though, that the Corning newspaper–like the Elmira newspaper–endorsed Congressman Kuhl over the weekend? Does anyone know if that is true? I really enjoy this site and appreciate its liveliness. I

    Comment by olean gal — November 1, 2006 @ 11:28 pm | Reply

  11. I was not able to source the original endorsement from the Elmira Star-Gazette or Corning Leader; however, I was able to find a reference to the endorsement from a recent Olean Times Herald article. The Buffalo News endorsed Eric Massa’s candidacy today. Personally, I don’t know how much weight newspaper endorsements have on a race. Maybe years ago they held weight, but I doubt the influence on voters is still there. However, I imagine that it’s still a “feather in the cap” for the candidate.

    As I understand it, a “troll” is a term known throughout the blogosphere as someone who’s itention is to come to a site for the purpose of causing disruption.

    Comment by theruralpatriot — November 2, 2006 @ 12:59 pm | Reply


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