National Journal’s Latest House Race Rankings – 10/23/06 – The latest 2006 House Race Rankings by Chuck Todd, Hotline editor, and Josh Kraushaar, House Race Hotline editor, have the NY-29 Congressional District Race between incumbent Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) and Eric Massa (D) ranked at #33. This is up from the last ranking slot of #36.
How they’re ranked: Seats are ranked by likelihood to switch party control (i.e., the top-ranked race is the seat most likely to flip).
Of the top 60 races profiled, only six are democratic incumbent seats (numbers 39, 40, 42, 45, 46, and 51. Seat #45 is an open seat in Vermont.)
Numbers from the latest USA TODAY/Gallup poll:
•Thirty-eight percent of the 675 likely voters questioned said the U.S. House of Representatives member from their district does not deserve re-election. That number has never been higher. Two weeks ago it stood at 33%.
•Asked what will make the biggest difference in their vote for Congress, 43% of likely voters said “national issues” — also the highest that figure has reached.
•On the generic question of whether they favor the Democrat or Republican candidate in their district, 54% of likely voters chose the Democrat and 41% the Republican.