Check This Out!

Pollster.com provides a graph that charts the results of the Kuhl/Massa polls. Unfortunately, I cannot show it here as this site does not allow for embedding javascript for security reasons.

Go take a look. Its quite interesting.

Newest Poll Results for NY-29

The new, independent Majority Watch Poll results are out. 1004 Interviews were taken from 10/24 - 10/26/06; MoE is +/- 3.09%.

Results are 53% Massa / 42% Kuhl. Last poll results were 52% Massa / 40% Kuhl.

What suprised me was the change in the Southern Tier area of the District. Last poll results had Rep. Kuhl up +1; this poll has Mr. Massa up +2 for the area. However, Massa did drop 6 points in the northern area of the district; +20 now vs +26 from the last poll.

New Polls

National Journal’s Latest House Race Rankings - 10/23/06 - The latest 2006 House Race Rankings by Chuck Todd, Hotline editor, and Josh Kraushaar, House Race Hotline editor, have the NY-29 Congressional District Race between incumbent Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) and Eric Massa (D) ranked at #33. This is up from the last ranking slot of #36.

How they’re ranked: Seats are ranked by likelihood to switch party control (i.e., the top-ranked race is the seat most likely to flip).

Of the top 60 races profiled, only six are democratic incumbent seats (numbers 39, 40, 42, 45, 46, and 51. Seat #45 is an open seat in Vermont.)

Clinton/Spencer, Cuomo/Pirro Polls and News

“The latest New York poll, from Siena College’s Research Institute, showed Clinton leading Spencer 59 percent to 32 percent. A September poll from the Albany-area institute had Clinton leading 62 percent to Spencer’s 33 percent.”

Independent Poll Results for Kuhl/Massa Race

The Majority Watch Poll - a Project of TR Strategies and Constituent Dynamics, has Eric Massa leading Randy Kuhl 52% to 40%. Constituent Dynamics promotes their firm as “A new opinion research option for political professionals”.

Click the “Majority Watch Poll” link, and then click the icon located on the map for the 29th District for a detailed breakdown of their results.

Interviews: October 15-16, 2006; Validated respondents: 1,016; MoE: +/- 3.07%; Partisan Identity: Republican 43%; Independent 28%; Democrat 29%.

Another item to note is Bush approval:  28% approve, 63% disapprove, 9% undecided.  NY-29 demographics are broken down into the categories of age, gender, race, marital status, occupation, income, and education and a comparison is made using data from the US Census and 2002 Voters.

Here is a pdf file that breaks down the data by party identification, gender, age, geography, race, certainty, etc.

Total Kuhl     40% Rep 63% Dem 10% Ind 35%
Total Massa  52% Rep 31% Dem 82% Ind 54%

Push Polling in the 29th? - Part 2/Update

(Update to yesterday’s post “Push-Polling in the 29th?”.  Hat tip to blogger optimusprime, who sourced the link to NRCC’s Schedule E below.  This information started the procedure that led to this post.)

The information below is from: SCHEDULE E; INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURES; FILING FEC-239944; Committee: NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE. This is the firm that the NRCC has hired to conduct a poll for Mr. Kuhl in NY-29:

PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
214 NORTH FAYETTE STREET
ALEXANDRIA, Virginia 22314

Purpose of Expenditure: Survey
This Committee SUPPORTS The Following Candidate: RANDY KUHL
Office Sought: House of Representatives
State is New York in District 29
Date Expended = 09/28/2006
Person Completing Form: CHRISTOPHER J. WARD
Date Signed = 09/28/2006

Amount Expended = $21000.00
Calendar YTD Per Election for Office Sought = $21000.00

Primary Elections Today

Don’t forget to get out there and cast your vote!  The polls in our area are open from noon to 9:00 pm.

In the republican primary race, we have KT McFarland and John Spencer running against each other for the position of the Republican candidate for US Senator.  The winner will face the winner of the Clinton-Tasini primary in this November’s election.  John Faso is the only GOP candidate running for New York State Governor, and Jeanine Pirro is the only GOP candidate running for New York State Attorney General.

Mortgage Moms - the New “Swing Voter”?

First, it was the soccer moms; then we had the security moms.  This November, it may be the mortgage moms - “voters whose sense of well-being is freighted with anxiety about their families’ financial squeeze” -  who help to determine the outcome of the elections.

Even though the economy is growing and the national unemployment rate is low, middle-class families are finding themselves in a vulnerable position.  Adjustable interest rates, flat wages, rising energy prices, and the increasing national debt are contributing factors to their sense of unease.

New Poll Shows WNY’ers Dissatisfied With NYS Government

The New York Matters project was sponsored by the Center for Government Research in Rochester, NY.

…(the) group wanted to sense the mood of taxpayers in an election year and commissioned the Marist Institute of Public Opinion to conduct the poll among an unusually large group of respondents.  She said the results clearly show a yearning for reform, even in prosperous areas like New York City and the lower Hudson Valley.

 … the poll of 2942 residents statewide and 362 in Erie, Niagara, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties found the westerners in a far surlier mood than their already fed-up neighbors.

The Latest AP/IPSOS Poll Numbers

The poll was taken between 8/7 - 8/9.  1001 adults and 871 voters were polled.  Margin of error was +/- 3 for adults, and +/- 3.5 for voters.

1.  President Bush’s approval rating:  33%
                         disapproval rating:  57%

2.  Voters who voted for Bush in 2004, but who will vote for
        democrats this November:  19%